if you’re the kind of person who’s soorganized you’re already planning all your vacations for the coming century, be wary…because some of your favourite getaways might not exist by then. natural disasters, political turmoil and internationalhissy-fits are all poised to completely rewrite the world as we know it. so get ready for: 10 countries that won’t exist in 100 years number 10: kiribati as far as tropical islands go, kiribati ispretty much the bee’s knees.
it has over 1000 kilometers of white sandycoastline, all spread across 33 atolls and reef islands in the south pacific ocean. perfect if, like me, you want to get awayfrom the constant rain, traffic and texting pedestrians of the big city. there’s just one problem - and it’s abig’un… kiribati will probably be underwater in justa few decades’ time. this is, of course, the fault of global warming. sea levels are rising by an average of a centimeterevery two years. this may not sound like a lot, but for a low-altitudenations like kiribati, it’s pretty much
a death sentence. the small kiribati islands of tebua tarawaand abanuea have already been sent to a watery grave. that’s pretty ironic considering abanuealiterally translates as ‘the bea ch which is long-lasting’. the uninhabited islands disappeared beneaththe waves in the late 1990s and many more are expected to go the same way. only a few kiribati islands are expected toremain by 2115, and those that do probably won’t be able to support the agricultureneeded to maintain more than a couple of thousand
people. small-scale evacuations are already under-waytoday, and appeals have been put out for countries like australia, new zealand and fiji to takein permanent refugees from the sinking nation. number 9: the united kingdom let’s go from one island nation to another. the uk came into being in may 1707. today it consists of northern ireland andgreat britain - aka england, scotland and wales. but that may not be the case for much longer...
ever since 1853 there have been strong nationalistvoices in scotland, calling for freedom from the london-led government. in the 1930s, these voices banded togetherto form the scottish national party, which has lately become one of the big boys on thepolitical stage. despite losses in the 2017 election, the snpstill control 35 of scotland’s 59 seats, giving them a comfortable majority in thecountry’s parliament. there have been three scottish referendumsquestioning whether the country should have more independence outside of the uk. the most recent one, in 2014, was nail-bitinglyclose - with 55.3% of the country voting to
remain united. however, ever since the uk’s decision toleave the european union in 2016, calls for scottish independence have re-emerged. 62% of scottish voters opted against brexitand nationalists have raised concerns about london negotiating a deal that doesn’t havescotland’s best interests at heart. scottish first minister nicola sturgeon hasstrongly hinted at the possibility of a second independence referendum. and opinion polls indicate that - were thisto take place - it could be even closer than last time.
number 8: palestine despite being free from british rule since1948, palestine is still not technically a country. you see, most of the world’s biggest powers- like the usa, france and germany - don’t actually recognize that it exists. and not in a unicorns or loch ness monsterkind of way. i mean in a political ‘you’re not a propercountry’ kind of way. that being said, more than two thirds of theunited nation’s member states do recognize it.
and, while it doesn’t have a vote, it doeshave a seat in the un. part of the problem for palestine is the amountof conflict it has on its doorstep. after all, it is surrounded by israel, syria,iraq and turkey. as a result, large areas of palestine areoccupied by israeli troops, who use them as buffer zones against insurgent terrorist groupslike the so-called islamic state. however, this israeli military presence oftenundermines the power of the palestinian government, which aggravates the already high tensionsbetween the two countries. the ongoing and complicated troubles in themiddle east have put sorting out palestine’s identity crisis way down on the internationalagenda.
this means that it is very unlikely that thenation will gain the international recognition it needs any time soon - if ever at all. number 7: belgium known worldwide for its waffles, chocolateand brussel sprouts, belgium is not normally a country you would associate with conflict. but, in actual fact, it is among the mostdivided nations on the planet. the nation is made up of two very distinctdistricts. in southern belgium there’s wallonia a french-speakingregion that makes up just over half of the country’s landmass but only about a thirdof the population.
dutch-speaking flanders sits in the north,which is much richer and contributes about 60% of belgium’s gdp. the vastly different cultures have lived uncomfortablyside-by-side in the same country since 1830, repeatedly pushing for independence from oneanother. a general election in 2010, revealed justhow ridiculously fragmented the belgian political landscape is, when none of the 11 partieswon more than 20% of the seats. it took an insane almost two years of negotiationsfor a political coalition to be agreed - meaning that belgium didn’t have a government fora record-breaking 589 days. fun fact: public protests against the lackof government included a naked protest at
the 250-day mark, and even nation-wide threatsto boycott sex and shaving. with the divisions between the two districtsgrowing every year, it seems unlikely that a unified belgium will live to see 2117. number 6: north korea the instability of north korea should comeas no surprise. after all, when your country is ruled by aguy who sees nuclear war with america as a #squadgoal, you hardly give off a ‘stable’image. moreover, the north korean government controlsits population through a frightening and unsustainable mix of purges and a cult of personality.
and then there’s the economy. north korea’s per capita gdp sits at 180thout of 193 un member states, which i hardly need to say, is not very good. as a result, the country’s collapse is lookingincreasingly inevitable. a few high ranking defectors have spoken outabout military coup attempts that have already taken place, suggesting strong anti-statesentiment in the country. these attempts were halted by the country’smilitary, which i can’t deny is pretty damn strong, and then ruthlessly kept out of themedia. most experts predict that the most plausibleoutcome is an eventual reunion of north and
south korea. after all, the state of north korea was onlyoriginally created as part of a deal to give the soviet union control over the northernhalf of japan’s pre-world war two colony. since the soviet union collapsed in 1991,there’s not really any international advantage to keeping them separate. number 5: taiwan like palestine, taiwan is a complicated storywith different international powers disagreeing about its status as an independent nation. it’s not a member of the un - in fact, it’sthe most populous state that isn’t, with
a population of almost 24 million. according to china, taiwan is just a breakawayprovince that will eventually be part of the country again. basically, it’s a bit like that time thatmichelle williams tried to pursue a solo music career and just ended up coming straight backto destiny’s child. but supporters of taiwanese independence arguethat it’s actually much more autonomous than that. it has its own military, maintains diplomaticrelations with various other nations and even has its own democratically elected government.
basically, they think it’s more of beyoncã©than michelle. however, a 2015 poll of the population foundthat only 24% supported taiwanese independence, so reunification with china seems pretty likely. what’s more, ever since pro-independencechen shui-bian was elected as taiwanese president in 2000, china has put measures in place toprevent secession. for example, in 2005 they passed a law thatstating china’s right to use ‘non-peaceful means’ against taiwan if it moved towardsindependence - which sounds kind of ominous. number 4: united states of america the united states may not be united much longer.
following in the wake of the the 2016 ‘brexit’vote, loads of other countries considered independence referendums of their own. there was talk of a greek exit from the eurozone - aka ‘grexit’ - or other countries following in britain’s shoes with ‘quitaly’,‘abortugal’ or ‘angeleave merkel’. bad puns aside, brexit did stir up some genuinepolitical movements, including reviving some old debates about texas potentially leavingthe united states. the lone star state has been pushing for autonomyfor a while. before it even officially joined the us in1845, the second texan president mirabeau b. lamar strongly advocated going it aloneafter they seceded from mexico.
recently, ‘texit’ has been gaining momentum,with research from public policy polling demonstrating that almost 40% of texans want independence. so could this be the beginning of the endfor the united states? well... possibly. in march 2017, a study found that 32% of californianswant a divorce from washington and the alaskan independence party is now the third largestpolitical party in the state. number 3: the netherlands if you happen to be planning a break to amsterdam,i’d get in there quick… there’s a strong possibility that the netherlandscould be underwater in a hundred years time.
the netherlands is one of the lowest-lyingnations on earth, with more than half [edit: show “50%†onscreen] its population livingat or below one meter above sea level. this makes it incredibly vulnerable to flooding. in 1953, a huge storm slammed into the country,with floodwater reaching 5.5 meters deep. 1,836 people were killed in this disaster. since then, the dutch government has put alot of effort into constructing dikes and dams - they spend over $1 billion a year onflood defence. that’s great for keeping rising sea levelsout, but unfortunately it’s also pretty efficient at keeping internal flooding in.
and even if you keep throwing money at it,one flood defence is always going to break eventually. and once the water’s in, it’s trappedin. in 1995, a tiny crack appearing on the ochtendam caused the government to forcibly evacuate 4,700 people. experts believe another storm as devastatingas the 1953 one could cripple the nation, swamping its infrastructure, stranding thousandsof people, and costing the country billions. and, with global warming set to unleash itswater-y wrath upon the world, a storm that turns amsterdam into atlantis, is not unlikelyat all.
number 2: south sudan it would be kinda awkward if the newest countryin the world ends up be the shortest-lived, but it looks like things are heading thatway. south sudan was only formed in 2011, aftera referendum passed with a huge 99% of the population voting for independence from sudan. it was a democratic move celebrated by theinternational community, but that joy has since fizzled out. the country fell into disarray dizzyinglyquickly, after failed negotiations with sudan meant the nation’s borders and trade relationshipswere never properly established.
as such, south sudan’s economic infrastructureis basically non-existent and its vast population is severely suffering. more than 40% of south sudan’s 12 millionpeople have been described as ‘food insecure’, and civil unrest is rife. nine of its 10 provinces are currently involvedin armed conflicts, which has not only caused the deaths of up to 300,000 people but, hasactively prevented aid from getting to those who need it. the situation in the young country is dire,and it is looking more and more likely that reunification with sudan may be the only option.
number 1: canada canada may seem like a country too politeto have any problems. but the land of ice hockey, maple syrup, andother things probably, is closer to falling apart than you might think. after britain beat up france in the sevenyears war in the 1700s, the french were forced to hand over their territory in canada. this land, which was joined with the restof canada in 1774, was known as quebec. although forced to be part of the same country,quebec remained culturally very different from the rest of canada, and to this day theofficial language is still french rather than
english. in the 18th and 19th centuries, quebec mainlystuck with canada to avoid being annexed by the us. but whatever you think of america’s modernforeign policy, you have to admit that the us is fairly unlikely to start marching troopsinto montreal. as such, there are have been two independencereferendums in quebec’s recent history, with the desire to leave growing strongereach time. the first was in 1980, and only 40% of theregion voted to secede. but in 1995 a second referendum was held,with 93% of the population turning out.
the result was 49.4% voting to leave, thenarrowest of losses for the campaign. in 2011, the number of secessionists passedthe number of remainers for the first time. and with quebec holding local elections in2018, calls for a third, successful, independence referendum, may be just around the corner. so, that was 10 countries that won’t existin 100 years. which collapsing country was your favourite? did we miss any failing states off the list? let us know in the comments below. and if you want more upbeat version of thislist, why not check out 10 new countries that
could exist in 10 years, playing now
0 Comment
Write markup in comments